Ultimate pro football betting guide

Finlay Wilkinson

Finlay Wilkinson

Sports gambling can become addiction if you do not control this habit on time. You should organize your budget and should make separate sports gambling account in which you put money related to sport betting. Whenever you win you add money into that account and subtract in case of losing but you should only utilize money in this account for sports betting.
Finlay Wilkinson

Head coach Dan Quinn, who built the Seattle Seahawks’ defense before taking this job, obviously still has a lot of work to do with the defense, but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. Importantly, the key injured cogs from last year are back. Well, the oddsmakers obviously felt all along that he would return to the fold as the odds didn’t budge. The W/L/T that we used in our betting previews for each team and used CG Technology’s Week 1-16 lines to see how many times a team is expected to be favored has the Giants favored in only 8 games, so they would almost have to win all of those (plus any upsets) to get over 8.5.

Denver Broncos (25-1)

Kansas City Chiefs under 9.5 ( 120)

Note: I still like the Houston Texans over 8.5 (-120), but not as much as I did when I got over 8 over the summer (though it still takes 9 wins to cash), so that’s why it didn’t make my list of top “over” bets. The better play now is Cincinnati at 20-1, as the Bengals have one of the best all-around teams with a balanced offense and a solid bend-but-don’t-break defense.

AFC betting previews | NFC | Super Bowl bets

The Bills did thrive on the offensive side last season, as offensive coordinator Greg Roman did an incredible job with quarterback Tyrod Taylor & Co. Yes, the schedule lightens up after that, but Ryan might have one foot out the door.

Tuley: Teams I love (to bet on) Tuley: Teams I love (to fade) Tuley’s totals: Best over/under teams

After Super Bowl 50, the Houston Texans were my choice for best value play out of the AFC at 40-1. Note that this offense actually led the league last year in three-and-outs at 28 percent.

Minnesota Vikings (20-1)

Buffalo Bills under 8 (-150)

Dave Tuley

Again, we don’t need the Bengals to erase their playoff demons to cash this bet. Forever the extreme eternal optimist, Ryan’s Bills generally failed to deliver last season, especially on the defensive side of the football. Note that with the top AFC teams expected down compared to the Cardinals, Packers, Panthers and Seahawks, the key is to bet the Ravens to win their conference.

Tuley

Cincinnati Bengals over 9.5 (EVEN)

Atlanta Falcons (80-1)

Arizona’s brilliant head coach Bruce Arians continues to preach it’s all about getting that ring on your finger, and his team is as well-rounded as any to deliver the title this season. I still like them, but the “value” part isn’t quite there anymore at 14-1. They just need to keep doing what they’re doing in the regular season, and I don’t see too much of a falloff from the team that finished 12-4 a year ago. After Philadelphia traded away Sam Bradford, this number has been raised to 8.5, and I believe that’s an over-adjustment — so I now like the under 8.5 (and ESPN’s Football Power Index and our Money Line Estimate agree as they’re still right around 8 wins). Of course, there are two big obstacles for the Bengals: First, they really need to hold off the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and secure a first-round bye. Importantly, the huge emergence of running back David Johnson is the catalyst to take the pressure off the deep passing game. We saw how they looked in their 5-0 start last season, when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looked unstoppable and Devonta Freeman emerged as a scoring machine — and they were the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. They jumped to 6-0 record before their bye week, outscoring the opposition 164-101. If you don’t mind giving up the insurance of a push on 7, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money, and even if they don’t live up to my lofty expectations, I don’t think they’ll be worse than a .500 team and get at least the 8 wins needed to cash this bet.

Offensively, the Cardinals continue to be sound at all levels. I don’t believe the Jets can catch the Patriots, but for this bet they just need to finish over .500 again.

Opening week last year, the Ravens lost defensive force and team leader? Terrell Suggs — and quite simply, it was all downhill from there. Best future bets, season win total bets, teams to bet on and against — it’s all here in Chalk’s 2016 pro football betting guide. The market hasn’t agreed, as the Falcons drifted all the way up to 100-1 before dipping back to 80-1 over Labor Day weekend. The Bears and Lions continue to erode, while the Vikings obviously lose some luster with the loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Ryan is known for his defensive prowess, but the Bills dropped from fourth in yards allowed in 2014 to 19th in 2015. However, after ranking 12th in points per game and sixth in yards per play, expect the league to adjust and regression to occur. And finally, their road schedule is void of high-caliber competition in Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tennessee, Washington, Philadelphia and their division rivals. Yes, this is a tall win projection, but the Packers are a heavy hitter and the schedule is as soft as a pillow.

New York Giants under 8.5 (-120)

Over

New York Giants Chicago Bears New Orleans Saints Arizona Cardinals Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars

Under

. So, I actually think now that the value is on the over 8, especially at the current 150 price. They added defensive leader Eric Weddle to their defensive backfield, and were able to add the No. They did lose defensive tackle Kyle Williams early in the season, but a defensive mastermind like Ryan should be capable of working around a key injury.

The Giants’ over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer, and it was a pass for me. The Jets were 10-6 last year and had the No. The schedule is tough and front-weighted.

New Orleans Saints under 7 (-140)

The question lingers as to whether Rex and his brother Rob Ryan turn this defense around. If Prescott can keep Dallas in contention and Romo returns healthy, the 25-1 price could be an overlay — as long as Romo can stay healthy the rest of the way, which is asking a lot.

After Super Bowl 50, I made the Falcons my best value bet for Super Bowl LI at 40-1. A potential Super Bowl game was promising last season before their collapse in Carolina to end the year after an impeccable 13-3 regular season. However, this team peaked early, and eventually the preseason loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson reared its ugly head along with subpar offensive line play. The FPI at 9.3 and MLE at 9.4 slightly agree, though it is a little concerning that they’re only clear underdogs in just four games (how they fare in the four pick ‘em games will tell the tale). Secondly, and ultimately the biggest hurdle, is they have to win three playoff games in a row (four if they don’t get a first-round bye), and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs and 0-4 with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. Importantly, the Cardinals can move forward from last year. ESPN’s Football Power Index has this total pushing with exactly 7 wins, but I like that the Saints are only projected to be favored in six games at CG Technology, plus the Money Line Estimate only adds up to 6.4 wins. Besides, the encouraging number is the 12 games that the Bengals are expected to be favored in this year. Basically, it comes down to believing we’re much more likely to see 6 wins (and a winning ticket) as opposed to 8.

Atlanta Falcons over 7 (-130)

If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), then I must love the over 7 at -130. In addition, their top draft choice, Shaq Lawson, might be back from injury in November and second-rounder Reggie Ragland is already done for the season. And while defenses can still win championships, like we saw last year with Denver, it’s not a necessity in today’s NFL.

Green Bay Packers over 10.5 (-170)

I originally had a lean on the Chiefs under 9 back in the spring, so I really like it now that it has been bet up to 9.5 (and 120 to boot!). However, it’s easy to flush last season down the drain and move forward with this rock-solid organization.

The season is finally upon us. The Cardinals are poised and motivated for the NFL title.

Dallas Cowboys (25-1)

Under the leadership of John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have been a threat every season to reach the Super Bowl. Nelson is back this season, while the signing of Jared Cook gives Rodgers another weapon.

Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

If only the Las Vegas oddsmakers would buy into the promises of Bills coach Rex Ryan. 6 overall draft choice, left tackle Ronnie Stanley. with trips to Baltimore, New England, Los Angeles, Miami, Seattle and Cincinnati, while garnering the Jets, Arizona and New England at home. The first 10 games will test the mettle of Ryan & Co. Before last season, Harbaugh owned a 72-38 regular-season NFL record as head coach, plus 10-5 in the postseason. Look for the Ravens to return to their physical ways with a chance to match any AFC contender. Note the Cardinals struggled in both their red zone offense and defense last season, as this team is far too talented for those trends not to turn around. They’ll most likely catch the Cowboys without Tony Romo. But the talent is there to take a flier.

Other potential future-book plays

Yes, there’s a trend here with finding value on teams with QB issues.

It’s not often you get 25-1 on the defending champions. They’re still the best value bet on the board in my opinion. Their offensive line, receivers and quarterback certainly rank in the upper echelon of the NFL. In addition, they were minus-15 in turnovers and nine of their 11 losses were within eight points as seemingly nothing went right. They don’t need to win them all to get over the total and, even if they don’t win them all, I give them a decent shot to win some of the rare games where they’ll be underdogs or pick ‘em.

You have to believe that Sam Bradford puts them back on track, and you have to not worry about not pulling the trigger when you could have had 30-1 when Shaun Hill was expected to be the starter.

Vital when handicapping over/under season wins is the schedule, and the Packers’ slate is relatively smooth sailing. ESPN Chalk’s NFL Vegas experts, Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning, combine to bring you the ultimate betting guide for 2016. Unfortunately, they’ve lost the services of difference-maker Marcell Dareus for the first four games. The loss of Tyrann Mathieu was devastating for this group late last season, as he works himself to 100 percent by this season’s end.

Baltimore Ravens (15-1 to win AFC)

I had a lean on the Jets under 8 back in April, but that was when Ryan Fitzpatrick was holding out, and I expected the number to go higher if he signed. Obviously we can’t have the Chiefs going on another 10-game winning streak, but that was a bit of a fluke, and no one’s going to be looking past them this year.

Rynning

Cincinnati Bengals (20-1)

Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers loomed especially large the first six weeks of last season. 4 defense with Fitzpatrick leading an already-balanced offense that adds running back Matt Forte. In proper Ryan-like fashion, the Bills also led the NFL in penalties last year. Peyton Manning is gone, of course, but if Trevor Siemian can run the offense — which relied more on the running game last year anyway — the defense can carry this team far.

Erin Rynning

New York Jets over 8 ( 150)

After the schedules came out in April, I made the Saints’ under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under 7 even better, though the juice is heavy at -140. They’ve fortified their defensive line with the additions of Chandler Jones and top draft choice Robert Nkemdiche to aid in the all-important NFL pressuring of the quarterback. Tony Romo got hurt again and the Cowboys’ odds were raised, but there is hope, as he’s projected to miss six to 10 weeks, and rookie Dak Prescott stepped up in the preseason. However, we’ve clearly seen the high end of this Packers team over the previous two seasons as an offensive machine and a capable defense. They eventually placed 20 players on injured reserve, including eight projected starters — Suggs, Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith included

Predict Football Score Predictions – How to Correctly Predict Outcome of Football Matches and Win Your Football Bet

Finlay Wilkinson

Finlay Wilkinson

Sports gambling can become addiction if you do not control this habit on time. You should organize your budget and should make separate sports gambling account in which you put money related to sport betting. Whenever you win you add money into that account and subtract in case of losing but you should only utilize money in this account for sports betting.
Finlay Wilkinson

Some of these football betting systems deliver strike rates up to 80% over an entire season, and is still being refined. These experts realize something that most people do not, and that is, prediction football do not need to be accurate to the extremes with match results, but all they need is a prediction football system to tell them whether their bets have a good enough opportunity to beat the sports books’ handicap.

Predict Football Score Predictions

The key to their success, is in the systems which they use to know which bets are worth placing. As the saying goes, the ball is round, and there are factors in every game that can tilt the balance and the score line in an instant, so to regularly hit results perfectly in prediction football is certainly not possible. Predict Football Score Predictions

Prediction football is more of a science than an art.

So, how does the small percentage of big winners manage to win their football bets over and over?

The secret lies in their systematic approach to betting on football. Predict Football Score Predictions

Sports books determine football handicaps and odds based on a number of data which they have collected over the years, therefore, while most people think that they can perfectly master the skill of prediction football just by understanding the sport itself, only a very small number of people who bet on football manage to win money consistently. While a lot of people out there argue that football betting is won on factors like “gut feel”, “luck” and “experience”, the biggest winners that consistently make tons of money betting on football are still the ones who go about their “investments” in a scientific and systematic manner.. If you are serious about making money from football betting, then I say you join them and get yourself a profitable system right away

Don’t Be a Square: 10 Tips for Betting on Football

Finlay Wilkinson

Finlay Wilkinson

Sports gambling can become addiction if you do not control this habit on time. You should organize your budget and should make separate sports gambling account in which you put money related to sport betting. Whenever you win you add money into that account and subtract in case of losing but you should only utilize money in this account for sports betting.
Finlay Wilkinson

4. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. “Teams play inspired ball at home. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,'” Konik says. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

2. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books.

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

9. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

10. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

5. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites.

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet.

So, how much should you bet a game?

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record.

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day.

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

1. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below.

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week.

And where does all that money go?

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says.

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

.

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl.

7. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks.

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky.

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years.

8.

3. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

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