One the first questions I need to answer before I start planning for 2010 is what to do with Joe Mauer. He doesn't come into play if you have a top 5 or 6 pick, but he will enter your thought process as you approach the middle of the first round. Many fantasy players will shy away from taking a catcher with an early draft selection never mind risking a first round pick on him. For me, it's all about edge. I've been beating the drum that Mauer would have an Ivan Rodriguez 1999 season for a couple of years. Was last year that year or is the more in the tank? Mauer missed the early part of the season, but he still managed to have a monster season. Here's what it looked like:
BA: .365 R: 94 HR: 28 RBI: 96 SB: 4
He played in 138 games with 523 at bats. Over 500 at bats it a lot for a catcher, but he will get about one day a week at DH.
The 1999 Ivan Rodriguez season I'm taking about looks like this:
BA: .332 R: 116 HR: 35 RBI: 113 SB: 25
I ask you: is this an impact player? With those number he was certainly worth of a first round selection. We know Mauer is a better average hitter, but the question is the power for real? He hit 16 of his homeruns to the opposite field last season. He has yet shown he can consistently pull the ball to right field. This season you also have to take in account the new ballpark in Minnesota. Will it hurt his chances of hitting homeruns?
When you look at the change is the size from the Metrodome to the new Target Field, you will see it might favor balls hit to left field.
Metrodome Target Field
L-343 L-339
LC-385 LC-377
C-408 C-404
RC-367 RC-367
R-325 R-328
Until games are played, we won't be able to speculate if fly balls will carry well in the new ballpark. I'm sure the weather will be a factor. In the early season in the cold air, homeruns can't carry as well unless they are helped by the wind. I think the new Target field won't hurt Mauer's chances of hitting homeruns to the opposite field. If he starts to pull the ball, it looks like that will be to his advantage with it being 328 down the right field line.
A wild card in Mauer value is speed. He had only 4 steals last year. His career high was 13 in 2005. For his career he has stolen 34 bases in 41 attempts which is almost 83% success rate. For him to get more steals, all he needs to do is run. I think it would be tough to factor in steals for him this season, but in the back of your mind you know there is a chance he could steal 10+.
I'm not big on projections. I like to ballpark a players stats. If I'm fair, it should average out. I think of Joe Mauer as a solid .320+ hitter with 90+ runs, 20+ homeruns, 90+ RBI, and 5+ steals. I know he could do better in every category. So when I look at him as compared to the other catchers, I can see where he has an edge. Is he more of an edge than other players that go in the first round? I'll look at this later and have some similar decision you have to make prior to the draft. I'll call the series Swap Zone.
