So it's the middle of November 2008. We are just a few hours away from the NY Jet vs. New England Patriot game that kicks off week 11 of the NFL season. This is the last chance for WCOFF teams to position themselves to make it into their league championship games. This is also the last week for waiver wire pick ups and final team adjustments. For some, this part of the season is thrilling given the potential to win the WCOFF main event and all that comes with it. For the rest of us (raise your hand with me), it's a time to reflect on what went wrong with our teams and to start thinking about 2009.
Given that one of the more active threads discusses 2009 league playoff formats, I am not the only one living in 2009 land. 2009 is shaping up to be a very interesting fantasy football year. Never before has there been so many early round disappointments and surprises. We are very likely to see a changing of the guard at the #1 spot. LaDainian Tomlinson will most likely be passing the torch to Adrian Peterson. But how far will he fall? Will the likes of Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson and heck even Clinton Portis pass LT2? With the exception of Westbrook and Gore, none of the top running backs this year are real threats to catch the ball. Guys like Jacobs, Turner and Thomas Jones are putting up nice years. But can you take any of those guys over the top WRs in the league? At the current moment, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall all look safer than just about all of the aforementioned RBs.
What about quarterbacks? With so much uncertainty surrounding various running back situations, is it now time to lock in a top 5 QB in the first four rounds at the expense of RB/WR? With Tom Brady missing in action for all of 2008, does he maintain his #1 QB ranking? Does Drew Brees become fantasy's most coveted QB? How about Kurt Warner and his three studly WRs? Warner was only drafted because he won the Arizona QB job late in
training camp and now can potentially be the top performing fantasy QB this year. With about 15 QBs projected to be reasonable fantasy starters, owners will have to weigh the pros and cons of using one of those valuable early round picks.
Perhaps the most interesting dynamic heading into 2009 will be the uncertainly surrounding many veterans that figured to be solid in 2008 and have instead become fairly easy candidates for benching on a weekly basis. Guys like Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Edgerrin James and Larry Johnson may have little or no value in 2009. These were all guys that went in the top 6 rounds in '08, have little or no injury problems, yet see time catching up with them. Owners will have to decide whether these players have bounce back potential and are thus value picks or are just done.
Rookies are also difficult to project. This year, more so than in years past, rookies are having more of a positive impact. Matt Ryan, a rookie QB, and on a team that previously was one of the leagues doormats, has proven to be a serviceable fantasy starter. Eddie Royal, Chris Johnson and Matt Forte are key cogs in many leading fantasy teams. So what does that mean for '09 projections? How high do these guys jump and where does the new rookie class get drafted? Guys like Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells and Matt Stafford could be next year's breakthrough rookies.
For those of you contending for the WCOFF crown, good luck down the stretch. For the rest of us, September 2009 can't arrive soon enough.
