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Updated: Sun 8/22/2010 11:16 am
It is that time of year again, that time when players values rise and drop. We breakdown some players whose value is soaring, failing, and should be followed. It is that time of year. You know, the time of season where things change on a daily basis. If you are like us (an avid fantasy football fan) you have been making your projections, viewing the ADPs, and participating in wcoff satellite leagues and mock drafts to get your fantasy fix. You think you have it all figured out and then it hits.....Football is back. Camps are in full swing, and preseason games are upon us. I know many people who say they would never draft in early July as too many things change. While I agree this is true, I look at it as you can get some steals. Offseason fantasy football is just like the stock market. Players rise and fall based off of so many factors. Training camp news, preseason games, injury worries and even the Favre factor are all things that help make values of players change. Below, we look at some players whose value has soared(Buy), dropped(Sell) and ones that buyers will be keeping their eyes on.
Buy
Arian Foster- Texans RB (128.43 - 10th Round 8th pick)
Both of the Texans Running backs have potential to be strong fantasy football contributors. Many people were high on Ben Tate early on. (68.5 ADP /6th round) Now that Tate will miss the 2010 season both Foster and Slaton should rise up the charts. If you were lucky enough to draft Foster (128.43 / End of 12th round) you may have just got a steal. He will likely get close to where Tate was going by draft day and could be a td producer in the tune of 12 or more. His stock will soon soar.
Wes Welker – Patriots WR (50.63 4th round 2nd pick)
In 13 games Wes Welker put up numbers to the tune of 122 Catches 1,348 yds and 4 tds. He was a PPR league stud and then the week 17 injury. Early buyers were afraid of the dreaded ACL injury and were passing on Welker. As of July 8, his average draft position (ADP) was 51 which is early 5th round. We were able to get him at 63 (6th round from 10 slot) and have seen him fall lower. Also, much has been talked about the play of other receivers (Brendon Tate, Edleman) and because of that they would work Welker back slowly. After just seven months of rehab Welker played in New England’s 2nd preseason game and was thrown right in the fire. He was targeted his first 3 plays, including two catches. On the third play he was nailed and bounced right back up. As quickly as he got back up is how quickly he will rise in drafts. Get him while you can, he may still be available in the 4th round but come Sept 11th he will be long gone. We would not be surprised to see Welker move up to 2nd/ early 3rd round status before the main event draft.
Sell
Vincent Jackson - Chargers WR (37.33 - 3rd Round 1st pick)
Jackson has not had the best preseason. The first issue was the contract dispute and the willingness to hold out for the first 10 games of the 2010 season in hopes of cashing in. In the beginning it seemed like there would be a market for him or the Chargers would be able come to an agreement with their Pro Bowl receiver. As time has passed it seems like the Chargers are holding firm on this issue. The fact that Jackson has been handed a 3 game suspension for violating the leagues personal conduct policy does not help his case for a trade. His average ADP was 37.33 as of 7/8/2010 and this will drop by a round or two if there are no improvements in contract talks. He still could be a big factor this season, but given the fact he will definitely miss more then 1/4 of the wcoff regular season, and potentially all of it, he has no where to go but down...and fast!
Pierre Garcon - Colts WR (55.56 – 4th Round 7th pick)
I will start of by saying I am a big fan of Garcon. I think he has the talent to take over for Wayne in a year or two. That being said he has not showed up in 2 straight pre-season games. The colts find themselves with a plethora of talent at the wr position. Anthony Gonzalez was a fantasy football fan favorite last year until his season ending surgery. He returns to the mix this season along with Austin Collie. Though, I think ultimately (if he can stay healthy) Gonzo will hurt Collie more as they will share slot duties, having Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Addai (50 catch rb) make it important for Garcon to get back on the field. If he misses to much time he could be a risk drafting so high (55.56 - Mid 5th). I can see players like Hines Ward, Jeremy Maclin and TJ Houshmandzadeh going before Garcon in upcoming drafts. Not saying I would take these players over him, but I think his stock will fall due to the question marks!
Antonio Bryant – Bengals WR (102 - 8th round 6th pick)
Bryant had a good buzz entering this season as the number two option with the Bengals. He was a 9th round draft pick early on but his value has gone down every week since. Bryant struggled so much to pick up the offense that Marvin Lewis agreed to take a shot with TO. So far this preseason Owens looks to have a solid role in this run first offense. As time goes on it is looking more and more like Bryant will not be worthy of a top 12 round draft pick. By draft date his ADP will fall dramatically.
Keep an eye on:
Lance Moore - Saints WR (169.83- 14th Round 1st pick ADP
Lance Moore fell off the face of the earth in 2009 just one year after breaking out to the tune of 79 REC 928 yards and 10 td. Going into last year Moore was slowed down while trying to recover from shoulder surgery. He never really could break the Injury bug as other nagging injuries followed including and ankle and hamstring problem. He has had plenty of rest and has been looking sharp in training camp thus far. He got some work with the first team and caught 2 balls in the first preseason game against New England. He has been available in the 15th round and could see his stock rise a bit with a solid preseason. He has proven chemistry with one of the games best QBs so it will be hard to ignore his results.
Anthony Dixon – 49ers RB (218 -18th Round 2nd pick ADP)
Frank Gore has never been able to stay healthy for a complete season. It is not a matter of if, but a case of when he gets hurt. The retirement of Glenn Coffee (ADP 184) opens up a spot (even though Dixon likely would have passed him on the depth charts anyway!) Brian Westbrook will also join the 49ers backfield but would likely be more of a passing game threat/ 3rd down back at this point of his career. Dixon has potential to be a late season game changer if he can build off of his camp/preseason success. (100 yds rushing, 3 catches 21 yrds receiving opening game.) Keep an eye out as his stock will be soaring as we approach draft day..
Victor Cruz – New York Giants (Non- Drafted)
The overnight sensation after a huge performance against the Jets on Monday Night football, Cruz has caught my attention. And while he was playing against 3rd string talent the ability he showed (Catching and cutting) intrigues me. The negatives are that he plays behind a strong group of receivers led by Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith. Cruz could make things interesting if he continues playing at a high level and could pass Manningham on the depth chart. One thing I know for sure is fantasy owners will be paying close attention to Giants preseason games!
Devin Thomas – WR Redskins (145.17 -12th Round 1st pick ADP)
Mike Shanahan’s offense has always been linked to a strong running back. Guys like Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis were fantasy studs. Often overlooked is the quality wide receivers he produces. Every team he has been apart of has had very strong duo at wr ,Rod Smith and Ed Mccafferty, and recently Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. The redskins are looking to get more consistent play out of the passing game this year and achieve part of that goal by signing Donavan McNabb. Santana Moss is the known option out of this receiving group, the unknown is Devin Thomas. Thomas has had a solid training camp and is expected to rise above Roydell Williams and Joey Galloway for the #2 WR spot. I have never been sold on Thomas however he seems to be a good fit for Mcnabb’s passing game style. We will be watching the next few preseason games to see how Thomas and Mcnabb work together.
Ryan Torian – RB Redskins (212.25 - 17th Round 8th Pick ADP)
As I noted above, Shanahan has always been linked to strong rbs. Clinton Portis is currently a Redskin and has thrived in Mikes system. The skins made a lot of news bringing in a boat load of RBs this offseason. Clinton Portis, Willie Parker and Larry Johnson are all players that have had success in the NFL. The one guy no one is talking about is Ryan Torian. Torian was Shanahan’s guy recently, and when he was given his first NFL start he had a great game for the broncos, until getting hurt. This injury caused his departure from Denver but Shanahan saw enough to bring him in. Keep an eye out as he could have a shot at making this roster and be worthy of a late round draft pick. He had a strong 1st preseason game carrying the ball 17 times for 62 yards, 1 rec for 22 yards. Shanahan is notorious for pulling Running backs out of nowhere (Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell ALL OVER 1,000 YDS rushing. I wouldn’t be surprised if Torian became the man out of this group…
Who’s next to rise and fall?
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