How to Spot a Sleeper!
Fantasy Football Sleepers....everyone has them but do you know the easiest way to spot them? We take a lot into consideration when trying to find the “needle in the haystack”. We have come up with 5 major categories to keep our eyes on. Below is a breakdown of each.
Coaches/System
· Are the same coaches in place or is there a new coordinator? O-line coach? Head coach?
· What are their coaching tendencies? Have they been linked to good running teams?...etc
· What type of system are they running? High percentage plays like short passes or are they gun
slingers?
· Do they involve certain positions in the passing game? (Tight Ends and Running Backs ) Do
they like to keep more guys in to block?
Off-season Season Movement
· Are teams bringing in players to make a certain part of the offense better? - may give you a hint
of what they would like to do with their offense. Example: Signing great run blocking guards or
fullbacks may tell you that they are looking to run the ball.
· Are players being brought into learn a new system or something they have excelled in before?
Previous Year
· Who excelled towards the end of the season?
· Who had key play targets? EX: Find a guy who the QB seems to love to throw to on tough
situations - 3rd downs, etc.
· Who produced when they got their opportunity to play?
· Who had more and more targets as the year went on?
Opportunity
· What needs to happen for this player to get the opportunity to shine?
· Is he behind someone who is often injured or on their way out?
· What is their minimum role vs. maximum role?
· What type of supporting cast does this player have?
Training Camp/ Preseason Signs:
· Is a player moving up or down the depth chart? (Getting snaps with the 1st team offense, etc)
· Have other players at that position been let go?
· Is a player struggling to block during camp or games? (If he can't block he won't be on the field
as much.)
· Is a player’s role changing? - moving to the slot, etc. Or are they removing responsibilities like
KR to focus more on receiving/rushing?
Throughout our tenure in the WCOFF we have had great success finding late (10th round +) impact players. Don't get me wrong...we swing and miss but usually end up making solid contact with one or more. To stick with our baseball theme we will talk about our past homeruns, swings & misses, and caught looking sleepers. We will tie in how each category above helped us…or in the cases of the caught looking sleepers should have helped us find the ultimate sleepers.
Home Runs:
We have been fortunate to land quality picks in the late rounds (home runs) The four players below stand out to us as some of our best sleepers. Each of them fell into the categories above. Here is a quick breakdown of each player and how they fit into these categories.
Steve Smith 03’. (88REC/1110yds/7TDs) |
- Previous year – 2nd season increased reception total to 54 catches.
- Opportunity – Going into his 3rd season (which everyone by now has heard this theory) he was better suited for this offense (understood the playbook, etc) and was given an opportunity to start during training camp.
- Training Camp Signs - The biggest sign that we liked was the fact that they were reducing his special team roles in pre-season. Working others at Kick Returner. This indicated to us that they were planning on making him a larger part of the offense.
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03' Reggie Wayne (68REC,838yds/7TDS) |
- Previous Performance - In 2002 Wayne’s role got stronger as the year progressed. He started 7 games and had the 2nd most receptions out of all receivers on the team.
- Training Camp Signs – Heard a bunch of stories how Wayne was working harder (stayed longer) developing a rapport with Peyton Manning.
- Coaches/System - He was setup for success by being in a great passing system with a great QB. The offense was screaming for someone else to step up!
- Opportunity - He was going into his 3rd year in the system so he had a full understanding of it. He improved on his rookie season totals even with Marvin Harrison having a record breaking year with 143 REC. We figured some of those catches would have to go to someone else and thought it would be Wayne.
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07’ Wes Welker (112REC/1175yds/8tds) |
- Previous Year -In 2006 Wes Welker proved he was a solid receiving threat with a less then average QB in Miami.
- Opportunity – He was brought in to play the slot. A position that the Patriots have feature and a spot QB Brady has always liked to throw to. (Brown, Branch)
- Coaches/System / Team Movement - With Laurence Maroney’s shoulder injury and with the Patriots signings of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Welker, it was clear that they wanted to throw the ball. He had a great supporting cast with future hall of fame inductees Tom Brady and Randy Moss. We knew he would put up great numbers…..but not 112 catches…what a year!
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07' Bobby Engram (94REC/1147/6TDs) |
- Previous Performance - Coming into 07’ Bobby Engram had always been one of those guys who seems to get 4 catches per week. Engram may not have had a ton of catches/yards but was consistently catching key passes (3rd downs...etc) Matt Hasselbeck always showed great confidence in him.
- System/Coaches - With the struggles of Shaun Alexander (staying healthy) the writing was on the wall that they would start to be less of a “pounding the football” type team. (Mike Holmgren has always been a pass heavy play caller until SA came along anyways.)
- Opportunity - . With Deion Branch/DJ Hackett having health issues and Burleson struggling and being placed on KR teams, Engram was setup to have an opportunity to play even more. He was the best slot receiver on the team so he made a good spot starter even if all stayed healthy, however had a chance to be a starting fantasy receiver with injuries. That is just what happened.
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Swing and Misses:
We have had some big time mistakes as well. The consistent mistake with these sleepers is we took risky players in early rounds instead of the safer solid every year players. (Reached) Below is our biggest mistake we made in 03’.
Willie Green
(2 Round 16th overall) 03’ (559yds/1td, 10REC / 50Yards) |
- Why we like Willie Green - We liked Willie Green because he came on strong towards the end of 02’ and had a very strong preseason. He was a first round pick with big time potential. He started every game as a rookie gaining 887 yards and scoring 6 tds. We also knew that he was playing with a chip on his shoulder - dropping to the 16th pick in 02’ due to two suspensions for marijuana use. He was a home-run hitting/ exciting back.
- What we missed – We missed the fact that this was a PPR league. Green had a very low yards per rush avg. and did not have receptions to fall back on. We went to bat with a guy who needed to have very high rushing numbers and TD’s to be worthy of a 2nd round pick. Not to mention…he never ran for more then 6tds. We passed up Randy Moss, the top ranked receiver left on the board because we thought Willie Green would bust out. Randy Moss was coming off of a 106 REC Year, 1347yds and 7 TDS.(282.7 pts). Green would have had to double his 02’ rushing yards /TDS just to match Moss’ previous year….And oh ya…Moss caught 111REC/ 1632yds / 17TDS. We also missed the fact that Green did have off field issues so he was very risky….. I would say this was a big swing and miss!
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Caught Looking:
There have been many players we have over looked. It is very tough to cover all players….but Man oh Man was the writing on the wall with this one. Here are few major factors that contributed to Colston’s break out rookie season:
Marques Colston – 06-07’
(70 REC, 1038yds and 4 TDS) |
What We missed!
- Going into the 06’ season Sean Payton took over as head coach. Payton was known as a good offensive mind, especially in the passing game.
- In the off-season Payton and Saints brought in Drew Brees to direct his run–n–gun offense. A huge upgrade from 05’ QB Aaron Brooks.
- During training camp Payton had Colston and Devery Henderson working with the first team, and was apparent that Payton had complete confidence to go to battle with these young WR.
- On August 30th 2006 the Saints traded their 2005 leading WR (Donte Stalworth) to the Eagles.
- The receiving corp veteran Joe Horn was coming off an injury plagued season and it was clear that the wheels were falling off this once #1 WR.
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Due to inexperience and just plain ignorance we stayed clear of this situation. Both Henderson and Colston were available in rounds 17+. Now don’t get us wrong, there was no way of knowing which one of these players was going to flourish, but in hindsight, we should have taken both players to ensure getting the guy who did.….I mean who could use a player that late that puts up 70 catches, 1038yds and 4 TDS in 12 starts…everybody!!!!!.
This leads us to another great idea when trying to find a sleeper. If there is uncertainty in a particular WR corp, take a group of players from the same team and hope one is great. Somebody has to catch the ball and by using this tactic you’ll ensure that you have the player that does….. In 06 the Saints were cheap, 07 Seahawks, and 08…well we have our team, do you?
I guess the moral of the story is that sleepers are best when taken in the later rounds. Too many people fall in love with their sleepers and therefore must have them. Be patient and let them fall to you. Have a back up plan in place if you do not get your guy. Over spending on sleeper type players (unproven) are good ways to ruin your drafts/Season.
When you think you have found your sleeper put them through the T-N-T test.
1) Do they fit the coaches system?
2) Did their team show signs in the off-season to make him/or his position a priority.
3) Why has he not done well in the past or has he?
4) What is their minimum role vs. maximum role?
5) What is his role in training camp/preseason?
It has worked for us…Hope it works for you.
Have questions or comments? Email us at Daneau@tntdynastyleague.com or Beaulieu@tntdynastyleague.com
